BJP Expected to Hold Bankipur and Manjalpur, Tight Race in Datia: Poll Insights

An opinion poll conducted by Vote Vibe suggests that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to maintain its hold on Bankipur in Bihar and Manjalpur in Gujarat during the upcoming bypolls scheduled for July 30. However, the situation in Datia, Madhya Pradesh, appears to be more competitive, with a close contest anticipated against the Congress party. The results of these elections will be revealed on August 3, following the resignation of Nitin Nabin, a five-term BJP MLA, who vacated his seat after being elected to the Rajya Sabha. The BJP is projected to secure approximately 44.9% of the vote, leading Jan Suraaj at 33.8% and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) at 17.8%, indicating a significant advantage of around 11 points over Jan Suraaj.

The polling data reveals that the BJP's support is notably stronger among female voters, who are expected to back the party at a rate of 52.5%, compared to 40.8% among male voters. Conversely, Jan Suraaj shows a contrasting pattern, with a stronger appeal to men at 37.9% versus only 26.1% among women. This disparity highlights that the BJP's overall lead is significantly influenced by its support among women, while Jan Suraaj's position as the runner-up is primarily reliant on male voters. Age demographics further illustrate this trend, as the BJP's vote share is lowest among the 26-35 age group at 39.3% and peaks at 50.2% among those aged 51-60. Jan Suraaj, on the other hand, garners its strongest support from younger voters aged 26-35, while its appeal wanes among the older population.